A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
